Nigerians bracing for a welcome dip in the cost of foreign parboiled rice can thank a swelling global rice surplus, largely originating from India, the world’s leading producer. This bumper harvest has created a glut for the second consecutive season, pushing international rice prices to their lowest point in a decade and a half.

Over the past three months, the once-soaring prices of both locally grown and imported rice have softened and stabilised. A recent BusinessDay market survey reveals that a 50kg sack of foreign parboiled rice, which commanded an average of N93,000 in January, now trades for around N67,000 – a significant 28 percent drop since the start of the year.

On the global stage, India’s 5 percent broken parboiled variety was quoted at $500-510 per metric ton this Monday, a further decrease from the $530-$536 per ton recorded just last week. Similarly, Thai 100% rice saw a slight dip, quoted at $413 per metric ton in March compared to $405 per ton in April.

Experts anticipate this downward trend to continue as the global rice market grapples with the oversupply. “That global rice prices are falling also means that Nigeria will see a decline in rice prices too,” affirmed Victor Iyama, chairman of the Federation of Agricultural Commodity Association of Nigeria (FACAN). However, Iyama cautioned that Nigeria should prioritise boosting its own rice production rather than relying on international surpluses for affordability.

For many Nigerians, for whom rice is a dietary cornerstone, this price drop offers a much-needed respite. “I didn’t allow my children to eat rice as often as they wanted before now because of how expensive a bag of rice was,” shared Sadiat Bola, a hairdresser in Lagos. “However, today, we eat rice as many times as we want because it is affordable.” The stark contrast to the festive season just past, when rice prices shot above N120,000, casting a shadow over celebrations, underscores the significance of this price easing.

Ibrahim Kabiru, president of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN), echoed this sentiment, stating unequivocally that Nigerians would undoubtedly benefit from the ongoing global glut in foreign rice prices.

The current situation marks a significant shift from the recent past, where extreme weather conditions in India, driven by El Niño, led to export restrictions and a subsequent surge in global rice prices. The lifting of these restrictions has now unleashed a greater volume of rice onto the international market, contributing to the price decline.

The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) pinpointed September 2024 as the start of this global downward trend, following India’s reversal of export limitations, including a 20 percent export duty on certain rice varieties. India also set a minimum export price for basmati rice to manage domestic food inflation. The FAO’s latest rice update highlighted a drop in export prices for Indica rice from major exporters in December, attributing it to slower sales and intense competition. Currency depreciations against the dollar further amplified this downward pressure, building on the impact of India’s substantial kharif crop supplies.

However, the silver lining for consumers casts a shadow over local producers. Bashir Ismail, a paddy rice processor based in Kano State, highlighted the challenges posed by falling global prices. “Nigeria is likely to experience even lower prices, especially following the recent rice importation initiatives by the federal government. While this could offer relief to consumers, producers and processors might face further losses due to rising input costs,” he explained.

Data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) indicates that Nigeria’s rice production in the 2024/2025 season has fallen by 7 percent to 5.23 million metric tons, down from 5.61 million MT in the previous season. This production shortfall necessitates significant imports, with Nigeria currently meeting about 43 percent of its rice needs through foreign sources.

Looking ahead, the AFEX annual commodity report in February projected a further 11 percent drop in global rice prices in the 2025/2026 season, citing favourable weather conditions in India and other major rice-producing nations. “The global rice market is poised for potential price relief in 2025, driven by expectations of strong production and key policy shifts in India,” the AFEX report concluded. For Nigerian consumers, this global glut offers a much-needed reprieve from the soaring cost of a staple food, even as local producers navigate the implications of increased competition from cheaper imports.